Halloween will be on us before we know it. It is a time of year where real estate cycles can really confuse those that haven’t been in the industry for too long. In fact, we are already seeing some of these figures creeping their way into the news, as retailers continue to roll out their costumes and candy earlier every year. So what should we expect, and what are the best moves for beating the trends around this time of the year?
Seasonal Stats Rise Again
The New York Times recently heralded the arrival of a new real estate index, which shows 45% of New York and Washington DC homes losing value. Now that’s scary, at least on the surface. Other figures have been published which suggest some slowing of growth. Is there reason to worry? Why aren’t experienced investors and industry pros panicked?
Trick or Treat Stats
The uncomfortable, but true, reality is that statistics and indexes often mask what is really going on in the market. When we know it is Halloween, we aren’t afraid of werewolves goblins, and ghosts showing up at our doors. The same is true of real estate veterans that understand distractions, and how numbers can be dressed up. There are multiple indexes and calculations that can be used to report on real estate, and the figures can often be twisted. For example; if more low end homes sell during a quarter, then the average home price may appear to have dropped significantly – especially if there was a surge in luxury sales the quarter before. Averages and indexes have been even trickier over the last few years. As more of the billions of dollars in distressed properties are sold cheaply, recognize the need for true wisdom when trying to decipher them.
The bumps and scares probably aren’t over for this season. In fact, they’ll quite likely ramp up over the next few weeks. Those with experience know that this is typically a soft time of year. House sales normally slow after the peak summer rush. That often freaks out sellers and even green Realtors. That can lead to dips in prices ahead of the end of year surge.
Real Estate Candy
This is a great time to buy homes, and load up on inventory. Just don’t regret missing out on the opportunity. Keep the big picture in mind. Given where we appear to be in the larger real estate cycle, the current market is still like a big bowl of candy. This isn’t about taking candy from those in distress, however. It is about helping those in need, or that have piles of real estate candy piled up, that they need to unload. Get it while it is virtually being given away, or at least on serious sale.
As we near Halloween, it can also be a great time to get an edge on the sales side. Halloween, in particular, is a fantastic opportunity for selling real estate. Think themed real estate marketing and social events, as people begin warming up for the end of year holiday season. That includes Thanksgiving, Small Business Saturday, Cyber Monday, and Giving Tuesday. Savvy real estate marketers are already preparing these materials. The time to get in gear and be ready to roll is now.
Know Your Data
Zombie data isn’t anything to be afraid of. It is important to know your numbers, but make sure you are really digging deep. Know your data, annual trends, and grander cycles. Be prepared to make the most of the situation, especially where others are fumbling the ball. Automate as much as possible, so that you can enjoy plenty of free time during the upcoming holidays, and roll into the New Year ahead of the game.
